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Abstract We examine a century of radial velocity, visual magnitude, and astrometric observations of the nearest red supergiant, Betelgeuse, in order to reexamine the century-old assertion that Betelgeuse might be a spectroscopic binary. These data reveal Betelgeuse varying stochastically over years and decades due to its boiling, convective envelope, periodically with a 5.78 yr long secondary period (LSP), and quasiperiodically from pulsations with periods of several hundred days. We show that the LSP is consistent between astrometric and radial velocity data sets, and argue that it indicates a low-mass companion to Betelgeuse, less than a solar mass, orbiting in a 2110 day period at a separation of just over twice Betelgeuse’s radius. The companion star would be nearly 20 times less massive and a million times fainter than Betelgeuse, with similar effective temperature, effectively hiding it in plain sight near one of the best-studied stars in the night sky. The astrometric data favor an edge-on binary with orbital plane aligned with Betelgeuse’s measured spin axis. Tidal spin–orbit interaction drains angular momentum from the orbit and spins up Betelgeuse, explaining the spin–orbit alignment and Betelgeuse’s anomalously rapid spin. In the future, the orbit will decay until the companion is swallowed by Betelgeuse in the next 10,000 yr. 

We use randomized treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of future economic growth to generate exogenous changes in the perceived macroeconomic uncertainty of treated households. The effects on their spending decisions relative to an untreated control group are measured in follow-up surveys. Our results indicate that, after taking into account first moments, higher macroeconomic uncertainty induces households to significantly and persistently reduce their total monthly spending in subsequent months. Changes in spending are broad based across spending categories and apply to larger durable good purchases as well. (JEL D12, D81, D84, E21, E23, G51) 

The seminal work of Jonung (1981) showed that households' perceptions of inflation are the strongest predictor of households' inflation expectations. This fact has been a key ingredient for testing and developing theoretical models of how economic agents form expectations (e.g., the famous Lucas (1972) island model). However, little is known about whether perceptions play a similar role for firms. Using a new survey of American CEOs, we document that inflation perceptions shape the inflation expectations of firms just as Jonung (1981) found for households. These results suggest that information rigidities apply not only for households but also for CEOs. 

Abstract We compare causal effects of forward guidance about future interest rates on households’ expectations of inflation and nominal mortgage rates to the effects of communication about inflation in a randomized control trial using more than 20,000 U.S. consumers in the Nielsen Homescan Panel. We elicit consumers’ expectations, and then provide 22 different forms of information regarding past, current, and/or future interest rates and inflation. Information treatments about current or future interest rates all have similar and offsetting effects on interest rate and inflation expectations, yielding limited pass-through into perceived real rates. Information about mortgage rates has much more powerful effects on interest rate perceptions, with no offsetting effects on inflation expectations, thereby delivering much larger changes in perceived real rates. Revisions in perceived real rates causally lead to changes in the ex-post purchases of durable goods by households. 

Using randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in different countries, we study whether the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation rose in advanced economies, both households and firms became more attentive and informed about publicly available news about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has been consistently high (Uruguay) and low (New Zealand) as well as what happens when the same agents are repeatedly provided information in both low‐ and high‐inflation environments (Italy). Our results broadly support models in which inattention is an endogenous outcome that depends on the economic environment. 

{"Abstract":["Rock magnetic data from IODP Exp. 382 Sites U1537 and U1538 to support Reilly et al. "A geochemical mechanism for >10 m offsets of magnetic reversals inferred from the comparison of two Scotia Sea drill sites"\nExcel Files:\n\nU1537_CubeSummary_Zenodo.xlsx : Summary of NRM, ARM, IRM, and magnetic susceptibility investigations on U1537 cube samples\nU1538_CubeSummary_Zenodo.xlsx : Summary of NRM, ARM, IRM, and magnetic susceptibility investigations on U1538 cube samples\nZip Files:\n\nFORC_Data.zip : First order reversal curve data files in MicroMag format for samples discussed in paper\nDCD_Data.zip : DC Demagnetization curve data files for samples discussed in paper\nHysteresis_Data.zip : Hysteresis Loops for samples discussed in paper\nMPMS_Data.zip : Data collected on Magnetics Property Measurement System 3, including Field Cooled/Zero Field Cooled Curves, Low Temperature Cycling of Room Temperature IRM, and AC Susceptibility\n \nNRM = Natural Remanent Magnetization; ARM = Anhysteretic Remanent Magnetization; IRM = Isothermal Remanent Magnetization"]} 

Paleomagnetic, rock magnetic, or geomagnetic data found in the MagIC data repository from a paper titled: A Geochemical Mechanism for >10 m Apparent Downward Offsets of Magnetic Reversals Inferred From Comparison of Two Scotia Sea Drill Sites